GitHub CEO: AI and software development are now inextricably linked

“AIandsoftwaredevelopmentarenowinextricablylinkedfortherestofourlives,”GitHubCEOThomasDohmkesaidtodayduringapresentationattheCollisionconferenceinToronto,Canada.“Inaworldeatenbysoftware,everydeveloperdeservesaco-pilot.”

Inaninterviewafterhistalk,DohmkeexpandedonthisabitwhenIaskedhimifhebelieveseverydeveloperwillbeusingAIinthenearfuture.“IthinktheobviousanswertothatoneisthattheFOMOincompaniesisalreadysobigthattheyarelookingatthecompetitionandaskingthemselvesiftheircompetitorhasalreadyadapted[GitHub]Copilot—andthatmeansthatthatcompetitorhas—anddoesn’treallymatterifit’s20%,30%or40%—thatcompetitorhasanadvantage.”

Ontopofthat,hebelievesthereisreallynodisadvantagefordeveloperstouseatoollikeCopilot.“It’sjustsonatural.There’sreallynoreasontonotuseCopilot,”hesaid.“Ithinkit’sbecomingpartofthestandardtoolsetthateverydeveloperwillbeusing.Ultimately,developersnotusingitwillexist,thesamewayCobaltdevelopersstillexist.”

HealsonotedthattoolslikeCopilotwillgetintegratedacrossthedevelopmentlifecycle.

GitHub’sCopilotwasamongthefirstAI-basedcodecompletionservicesandremainsthemostpopular,evenasthelikesofAWSCodeWhispererand,mostrecently,Google’sBard-basedcompetitorsareseeingsomeadoptionfromdevelopersaswell.AspartofDohmke’stalk,GitHubtodayalsoannouncedsomeofitslatestfindingsonhowCopilotisbeingusedbydevelopers.

Onenumberthathasn’tchangedisthatGitHubstillsaysthat,basedonitsanalysisofasampleofalmostonemillionusers,developersacceptjustunder30%ofcodesuggestions—andthelongertheyuseit,thehighertheiracceptancerate,withdevelopersacceptingcloserto35%ofsuggestionsaftersixmonthsofuse.Thosenumbers,Dohmkebelieves,won’tchangeallthatdrasticallyinthenearfuture,thoughhenotedthat50%would“makeushappy.”

ImageCredits:GutHub

What’smaybejustasimportantisthatCopilotisespeciallyusefulforlessexperienceddevelopers(whichGitHubdefinedbytheaveragenumberofrepositoryactionsonGitHubpriortousingCopilot).

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“AsdeveloperscontinuetobecomefluentinpromptingandinteractingwithAI,andnewmodelsthatallownaturallanguagetopowerthedevelopmentlifecycle,weanticipatethat80%ormoreofcodewillbewrittenwithAI,helpingdemocratizesoftwaredevelopmentformorepeople,”GitHub’sreport,co-writtenbyDohmkeandMarcoIansitiandGregRichardsfromKeystone.AI,explains.

GiventheexplosivegrowthinAIandthedearthofdevelopersinthisspace,GitHubalsonotesthatgenerativeAItoolsholdalotofpromisetomakethosedevelopersmoreproductive.Thecompanyexpectsthatglobally,generativeAI-powereddevelopertoolswilladd$1.5trilliontotheglobalGDPby2030andthateachmissingskilleddeveloperwillaccountfor$100,000inGDPloss.Meanwhile,generativeAIdevelopertoolscanmakeupforabout15millionadditionaldevelopers,GitHubbelieves(hencethe$1.5trillionintotalimpact).Thecompanybelievesthat’saconservativeestimate.

GitHub'sThomasDohmketalksopensource,AIandmoreontheDisruptSaaSStage